DataGreat, a tourism intelligence platform, has unveiled a scenario analysis through its Crisis Impact Simulator, exploring potential changes in European and eastern Mediterranean inbound tourism if Russian outbound travel experiences another significant disruption. This analysis builds on the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset, which provides comprehensive tourism data. The initial shock to Russian outbound tourism arose from the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, leading to sanctions, airspace closures, and payment system interruptions. These factors shifted Russian leisure travelers away from European Union destinations, redirecting them primarily to Türkiye, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt. Consequently, EU destinations that previously attracted substantial numbers of Russian tourists experienced declines exceeding seventy percent since 2022.
The simulator models a potential second wave of reduced Russian outbound travel, which could be prompted by tighter sanctions, further depreciation of the ruble, or more restrictions on indirect travel routes. This hypothetical scenario predicts a reduction of Russian travelers to specific destinations by twenty to thirty-five percent over a year. It examines three categories of exposure: EU destinations with remaining Russian tourist presence, Mediterranean areas reliant on package holidays and charters, and absorber markets like Türkiye, which may need to find alternative source markets to compensate for any loss in Russian visitors.
The scenario analysis highlights the vulnerability of various tourism operators to potential disruptions. Those most at risk include package tour operators dependent on charter flights, all-inclusive coastal resorts during the shoulder season, and destination management companies with a high proportion of Russian-language tour groups. These vulnerabilities are determined based on inbound share data, with an AI-generated narrative explaining the figures. In response, the simulator suggests mitigation strategies such as diversifying source markets to include Gulf Cooperation Council countries and India, repositioning tourism products to appeal to European markets, and implementing currency-corridor hedging for businesses heavily reliant on ruble transactions.
This new analysis complements DataGreat’s Risk Radar module, which assesses tourism risks for 42 destinations weekly, including the concentration of source markets. Together, these tools enable analysts to move beyond identifying vulnerable destinations to understanding the specific impacts of different shocks on various segments. DataGreat plans to release destination-specific insights from the simulator incrementally until 2026. Credentialed media can request detailed simulator outputs for any destination included in the WTTC Economic Impact Report 2025 dataset.
DataGreat is managed by Solustiq Yazılım ve Yapay Zeka Teknolojileri A.Ş., based in Edirne, Türkiye. The platform offers a range of tools, including a Persona Builder, Risk Radar, Campaign Brief Generator, and Crisis Impact Simulator, and is built on a dataset covering 42 countries and 26,880 verified data points.
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